Solar Activity Warnings 2003


BBSO Solar Activity Warning 20-NOV-2003 17:35:12 UT
Three active regions on the disk have the potential to produce a major flare. NOAA 0501 (N03W16) produced a M9.6 at 0747 UT today. Region NOAA 0501 has decayed slightly but maintains a strong delta configuration. NOAA 0507 (N10E53) has been quiet but is a reverse polarity beta-gamma-delta region. Region NOAA 0507 remains unchanged from yesterday. NOAA 0508 (S17E66) has produced only C-class events and remains unchanged from yesterday. All three regions could produce a major flare.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 19-NOV-2003 16:57:01 UT
There are currently three active regions on the sun capable of producing a major flare - good news for whole sun instruments. NOAA 0501 (N03W02) was the source of an M1.7 event at 11/19/04:06:00 UT and three C-class events. 0501 is still a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration with three deltas. NOAA 0507 (N10E68) is located in the area of old active region 0488. 0507 has a reversed polarity beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration but so far after rotating over the NE limb, it has been mostly quiet. The return of super active region of X28 fame, NOAA 0486, is just now becoming visible on the SE limb at about S17. This region has produced two C-class events since producing the M4.5 event yesterday. It is too close to and beyond the SE limb to ascertain its magnetic complexity but it appears to be reversed polarity with a large area of positive polarity in the leading portion.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 18-NOV-2003 21:39:41 UT
Three active regions have the potential to produce a major flare: Old super active region, NOAA 0486, is at and just beyond the SE limb at about S17. Old 0486 produced an M4.5 event today at 10:11 UT. NOAA 0501, N03E10 produced 3 interesting M-class events today (M1.8 at 01:39, an M3.2 at 07:52 and an M3.9 at 08:31 UT). 0501 maintains its complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Old active region, NOAA 0488, is rotating over the NE limb at N10. 0488 is still too close to the limb to ascertain its magnetic configuration, but the leading sunspot is large and appears to have a beta-gamma-delta configuration.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 07-NOV-2003 22:06:20 UT
The last paragraph of Alan Kiplinger's message regarding the recent solar activity got corrupted. Please also note that Don Neidig's affiliation is AFRL/VSBXS. Alan Kiplinger's e-mail address is kiplinge@sunwave.colorado.edu

The last paragraph should read as: There was a large westward coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X-28 flare on 04 Nov. This flare associated CME was proceeded by a halo CME. This halo CME was almost surely associated with active region 0484 which was on the back side of the sun. Another spectacular halo CME occured ~17:00 to 18:00 UT on Nov. 6. Region 0484 produced 2 X- and 16 M-class flares and is due to return ~ Nov. 12. Region 0488 is just beyond the west limb and it has produced X- and M-class flares. Thus, it is most likely that the show is not over.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 07-NOV-2003 18:18:38 UT
For those of you with interests in the recent solar activity, Alan Kiplinger, Center for Integrated Plamsa Studies, U. of Colorado and NOAA/SEC, has provided us with his discription of this remarkable solar activity.

At approximately 19:29 UT on 04 Nov. 2003 the Sun began an eruption in NOAA region 0486 at S19W86 of the largest solar flare ever recorded in soft X-rays (see http://www.bbso.njit.edu for a movie of the flare obtained at the Big Bear Solar Observatory of the New Jersey Institute of Technology). By 19:44 UT, NOAA's GOES 12 satellite reached saturation at X-17.4 (1-8A) an remained saturated until 19:55 UT. In order to estimate the actural peak intensity, I compared this flare's behavior with earlier flares from the same region. The three prior X-class flares occurring on 02 and 03 Nov. had much slower rise and decay times when compared on log plots of intensity. However, the X-10 flare of Oct. 29 matched the rise and decay times of the 04 Nov. flare almost precisely over a 50 minute period spanning the peak. By superimposing the curves, I deduced that the flare reached X-28 (+/- 3, a conservative error estimate) at 19:47 UT. Independently, Dr. Rodney Viereck of NOAA/SEC fitted the rise and decay curves with polynomial and log-normal functions and arrived at peak flux values ranging from X-25 to X-31. Accordingly, NOAA/SEL has tagged this flare as an X-28 (estimated) which makes it the largest soft X-ray flare ever recorded. The coronagraph at Sacramento Peak Solar Observatory also recorded the most intense coronal emission that it has ever seen. Very fortunately, the region was located extremely close to the west limb; thus, it was not magnetically well connected to us and effects at Earth were not terribly dramatic or destructive.

Don Neidig (AFGL/PHL) at sacramento Peak Observatory reports that the ISOON H-alpha telescope recorded point brightenings that progressed to the south pole in association with the flare. Sara Martin (Helio Research) commented that the SOHO 175A images from EIT showed simultaneous darking of coronal hole areas at the south pole and darking of a north-south area (channel?) near the central meridian and just above the equator. This indicates that the region is globally connected.

The comparison X-10 flare of 29 Oct. from AR 0486 is equally interesting. Brian Dennis (NASA/GSFC) reports that the flare is, by far, the most intense gamma ray line flare observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). RHESSI missed the peak of the X-28 event. The X-10 flare also was well observed by ISOON. Don Neidig reports clear evidence for a Morton wave as observed in on-band and +/- 0.4A off band patrol images. The wave can be seen in the direct images but is best seen by subtracting the red minus blue off-bandimages. The wave proceeded from the region to the north-east with a cone angle of about 50 degrees. It was not just a single front, but a wave train (like a moving washboard) with about three or four waves. The speed was 1100 km/sec, wavelength 88000km, peroid 80s, and data indicate vertical amplitude changes of roughly 66 km. We interpret the wave train as a mechanical oscillation of chromospheric material due to compression from the Morton wave. Sara Martin also reports that there were simultaneous darkenings near the south pole as recorded by SOHO's EIT at 175A, thus confirming regional global connections.

There was a large westward coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X-28 flare on 04 Nov. This flare associated CME was proceeded by a halo CME occured ~17:00 to 18:00 UT on Nov. 06. Region 0484 produced 2 X- and 16 M-class flares and is due to return ~ Nov. 12. Region 0488 produced X- and M-class flares. Thus, it is most likely that the show is not over.

Alan Kiplinger, November 07, 2003

W. Marquette, BBSO/NJIT

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 05-NOV-2003 18:28:03 UT
NOAA 0486, S17W91, Solar X = 925", Solar Y = -281", has rotated over the visible SW limb, but it is still capable of producing another large flare from behind the limb today.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 04-NOV-2003 20:08:57 UT
Super region, NOAA 0486, S17W87, Solar X = 924", Solar Y = -285", has produced another very large flare (Goes x-ray saturated at about 19:40 UT today). NOTE: Big Bear is still in the process of recovering from the local forest fires. We getting systems slowly back on-line.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 03-NOV-2003 22:36:11 UT
NOAA 0486, S17W75, (Solar X=894", Solar Y=-299") 11/03/22:30 UT is a beta-gamma-delta region and appears to have remained mostly unchanged the last couple of days. Region has produced only M-class events since yesterday. Expect C-class, M-class and X-class events. NOAA 0488, N08W81, (Solar X=946", Solar Y=123") 11/03/22:30 UT is a beta-gamma-delta region and has produced two X-class events today. Expect C-class, M-class and possible X-class events as the region goes over the west limb. NOTE: There has been no activity warnings since 10/27/03 due to mandatory evacuations of the Big Bear Lake area due to local fires. Everything is returning back to normal and observatory has had no damage and all staff are safe.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 28-OCT-2003 16:56:36 UT
NOAA 0486, S16E09, Solar X = -145", Solar Y = -342" at 10/28/16:00 UT produced a very large event (X17 at 10/28/11:10 UT). This is one of the largest flares of solar cycle 23. A very large CME was associated with this event. 0486 is capable of producing additional major flares.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 27-OCT-2003 20:11:16 UT
NOAA 0484, N03W53, (Solar X=772", Solar Y=1") has produced two low level M-class events today. The region retains its strong delta configuration. Expect C-class and M-class events with a good chance for another X-class event. NOAA 0486, S15E19, (Solar X=-304", Solar Y=-324") produced two mid level M-class events today. The region remains unchanged from yesterday. Expect C-class and M-class events with a good chance for another X-class event. A new rapidly growing region at N09E01 also may produce M-class events. Positions are for 10/27/20:00 UT.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 26-OCT-2003 17:39:58 UT
NOAA 0486, S15E35, Solar X= -536", Solar Y= -315" (10/26/17:30 UT) produced a long duration X1.2 event at 06:46UT. Region remains mostly unchanged from yesterday. NOAA 0484, N04W38, Solar X= 595". Solar Y= 1" (10/26/17:30 UT) is having an X-class flare at the time of this warning 10/26/18:00 UT. Region remains mostly unchanged from yesterday. We expect C-class and M-class events with X-class events probable from both regions.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 25-OCT-2003 17:00:36 UT
NOAA 0484, N05W24, Solar X= 392", Solar Y= 6" (10/25/14:30 UT) remains unchanged from yesterday and retains its complex beta-gamma-delta configuration with strong gradiants. We expect further C-class and M-class events with an X-class event possible. NOAA 0486, S16E48, Solar X= -691", Solar Y= -320 (10/25/14:30 UT) also remains unchanged from yesterday and has been mostly quiet since yesterday. It maintains its beta-gamma-delta configuration, reverse polarity. We expect C-class and M-class events with X-class events probable.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 24-OCT-2003 15:57:26 UT
NOAA 0484, N04W08, Solar X = 134", Solar Y = -247" (10/24/11:30 UT) produced numerous C-class events since the last Activity Warning. 0484 retains its large area and complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and we expect further C- and M-class events with an X-class event possible. NOAA 0486, S16E60, Solar X = -804", Solar Y = -307" (10/24/11:30 UT) produced an X1.1 event at 10/23/20:04 UT, an M7.6 event at 10/24/02:54 UT and an M4.2 event at 10/24/05:10 UT. 0486 is a large region with a reversed polarity beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This flux emerged within and just SE of an existing region with a stable negative polarity leader sunspot. Further C- and M-class events certain with another X-class event highly probable. probable.: Command not found.

W.Marquette, BBSO

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 23-OCT-2003 16:07:17 UT
NOAA 0486, S16E72, Solar X = -882", Solar Y = -291" (10/23/16:00 UT) produced an M9.9 at 10/22/19:47 UT and an X5 at 10/23/08:19 UT. NOAA 0484, N04E03, Solar X = -050", Solar Y = -020" (10/23/16:00 UT) produced three M-class events UT day today (M2 at 02:36, M3 at 07:02, and an M2 at 10:49). Both regions are large and magnetically complex and we expect that both regions will produce major events with 0486 having a slightly better chance of producing an X-class event.

W.Marquette,BBSO and J.McAteer,Queen's U. Belfast

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 22-OCT-2003 16:29:02 UT
NOAA 0484,N04E16, Solar X = -266", Solar Y = -018" (10/22/16:30 UT), has entered slow growth phase after displaying very rapid growth since 10/19. 0484 is one of the largest sunspots of the current solar cycle. NOAA 0484 is very complex with an impressive beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. C- and M-class events are certain with an X-class event probable. Another region of interest is rotating over the SE limb at about S15. The large sunspot now visible on the limb appears to be positive polarity which would be reversed polarity for the leading sunspot in the southern hemisphere. This new region has produced numerous C- and M-class events and is responsible for several back-sided CMEs. We expect this region to produce C- and M-class events with an X-class event highly probable.

W.Marquette,BBSO and J.McAteer, Queen's U. Belfast

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 21-OCT-2003 17:19:34 UT
NOAA 0484, N05E30, Solar X = -482", Solar Y = 005" (10/21/17:30 UT) continues in growth phase adding sunspot area and sunspot count while maintaining its magnetic complexity with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. We expect continued C- and M-class events with another X-class event probable.

W.Marquette,BBSO and J.McAteer,Queen's U. Belfast

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 20-OCT-2003 16:00:03 UT
NOAA 0484, N06E43, Solar X= -655", Solar Y= 33" (10/20/03 16:00 UT). Region NOAA 0484 is a compact beta-gamma-delta region with very strong gradiants and a tilted neutral line. The region has continued to grow with new flux emerging mostly in the middle section. The region has produced two M-class events since the the X1.1 yesterday. Expect C-class and M-class events to continue with a good chance for a X-class event.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 19-OCT-2003 17:01:07 UT
NOAA 0484, N05E58, Solar X= -816", Solar Y= 34" (10/19/03 17:00 UT). Region NOAA 0484 has grown overnight with new flux emerging in the leading area. Region has a beta-gamma-delta configuration with strong gradiants. The region has just produced a X1.1 at 16:50 UT and produced a M1.9 at 06:26 UT. Region is expected to produce C-class and M-class events with a chance for another X-class if growth continues.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 19-JUN-2003 17:40:40 UT
NOAA 0386, S07E33, Solar X= -512", Solar Y= -136" (06/19/16:00 UT), has been quiet but maintains its reversed polarity beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region remains unchanged from yesterday. C-class and M-class events with a chance for a X-class event.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 18-JUN-2003 18:49:27 UT
NOAA 0386, S07E53, Solar X = -750", Solar Y = -128" (06/18/09:00 UT), produced several C-class events and the M6.8 yesterday. 0386 remains a moderately complex region with a reversed polarity beta-gamma-delta configuration. Another major flare is possible.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 17-JUN-2003 22:56:59 UT
NOAA 0386, S07E61, Solar X = -821", Solar Y = -125" (06/17/16:00 UT), is mostly unchanged with a moderately complex reversed polarity beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. A major flare is possible.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 16-JUN-2003 18:05:59 UT
NOAA 0386, S06E83 (Solar X= -932", Solar Y= -101") at 06/16/11:00UT has rotated around the east limb and maybe the return of NOAA 0365. The region is to close too the east limb to ascertain its full magnetic complexity. Region produced a X1.3 at 2356UT yesterday. C-class and M-class events with a chance for another X-class.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 13-JUN-2003 17:37:28 UT
NOAA 0375, N11W83 (Solar X= 921", Solar Y= 178') at 06/13/17:00UT is now on the west limb. Region appears to remain mostly unchanged and stills maintains its magnetic complexity. Region has produced multiple M-class events since yesterday. Expect C-class and M-class events to continue with a chance still for a X-class event.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 12-JUN-2003 17:42:32 UT
NOAA 0375, N12W72 (Solar X= 880", Solar Y= 193") has slightly decayed in the leading sunspots but maintains is beta-gamma-delta configuration. The region continues to produce multiple M-class events and produced a X1.6 at 20:01 UT yesterday. C-class and M-class events expected with a chance for another X-class before limb passage.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 11-JUN-2003 17:08:29 UT
NOAA 0375, N12W56 (Solar X = 768", Solar Y = 191") at 06/11/17:00UT continues to be very active. M-class activity will continue and more X-class activity is likely. The strong delta configuration in the trailing spot continues to exist.

JV

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 10-JUN-2003 17:04:50 UT
NOAA 0375, N12W41 (Solar X = 608", Solar Y = 191") at 06/10/16:00UT has changed little from yesterday. An X1.7 flare occurred at 21:31 UT, along with C- and M-class events. M-class events will continue to occur, along with a good chance of another X-class event. NOAA 0380, S14E32 (Solar X = -487", Solar Y = -235") has simplified in magnetic structure and is no longer expected to produce M-class events. Previous message garbled by transmission error.

JV

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 10-JUN-2003 16:50:03 UT
NOAA 0375, N12W41 (Solar X = 608", Solar Y = 191") at 06/10/16:00UT has changed little from yesterday. An X1.7 occurred at 21:31 UT along with C- and M-class events. M-class events will continue to occur, along with a good chance of another X-class event. NOAA 0380, S14E32 (Solar X = -487", Solar Y = -235") has simplified in magnetic structure and is no longer expected to produce M-class events.

JV

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 09-JUN-2003 16:15:45 UT
NOAA 0375, N13W27, (Solar X= 419", Solar Y= 208") at 06/09/16:00UT has continued to grow in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. Growth continues in the very large trailing sunspot where a strong delta configuration exists. A M4.7 flare occured at 1128UT along with multiple C-class events. Expect C-class events and M-class events with a good chance for a X-class event. NOAA 0380, S15E47, (Solar X= -669", Solar Y= -248") at 06/09/16:00 UT has strong evidence of mixing and is expected to produce C-class and M-class events.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 08-JUN-2003 17:12:13 UT
NOAA 0375, N12W14, (Solar X= 224", Solar Y= 194") at 06/08/17:00UT has continued to develope, mostly in the large trailing sunspots, in size and magnetic complexity. A strong delta configuration exists in the large trailing sunspot. Region has produced multiple C-class events. Expect C-class and M-class events with a chance for a X-class event.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 01-JUN-2003 17:30:19 UT
NOAA's 0365, S07W83, Solar X=932", Solar Y=-114" at 06/01/17:00 UT, is now on the west limb. Region remains mostly unchanged from yesterday. Region has produced several M-class events since the last report. Expect C-class and M-class events with still a chance for a X-class event.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 31-MAY-2003 19:20:02 UT
Correction on time of flare. The flare was at 0224UT today.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 31-MAY-2003 19:02:59 UT
NOAA's 0365, S07W70, Solar X=884", Solar Y=-111" at 05/31/03/18:00 UT, remains mostly unchanged from yesterday. The region produced a M9.3 at 0029 UT. C-class and M-class events are expected with still a chance for an X-class event.

RF

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 30-MAY-2003 15:32:29 UT
NOAA's 0365, S07W52, Solar X = 742", Solar Y = -106" at 05/30/12:00 UT, retains its complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, but the decay noted yesterday continues, but C- and M-class events are still expected with the chance of another X-class event before west limb passage.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 29-MAY-2003 15:21:37 UT
NOAA's 0365, S07W41, Solar X = 618", Solar Y = -103" at 05/29/15:00 UT, produced an X1.1 at 05/29/01:05 UT. The region is starting to show slight decay, but retains its potential to produce C-, M-, and another X-class event.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 28-MAY-2003 14:47:30 UT
NOAA's 0365, S07W27, Solar X = 428", Solar Y = -099" at 05/28/14:00 UT, produced two X-class events since the BBSO Solar Activity Warning yesterday. The region was first observed as a rapidly developing EFR located just east of spotless region NOAA 0365. The region has continued in rapid growth phase and is now a very large beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration with a steep magnetic gradient along its unusual E-W magnetic inversion line. The two X-class flares were an X1.3 at 05/27/23:07 UT and an X3.6 at 05/28/00:27 UT. Both X-class flares were observed at Big Bear. This region has the potential to produce C-, M-, and X-class events with the chance of producing an even larger X-class event.

See www.bbso.njit.edu/cgi-bin/LatestImages, www.bbso.njit.edu/arm/latest, and www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events for images and additional information.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 27-MAY-2003 17:13:31 UT
A large complex region located at S06W16 (Solar X = 260", Solar Y = -079" at 05/27/17:00 UT), is a recently emerged region which developed rapidly on 5/24 slightly east of the trailing portion of spotless NOAA region 0365. The region has continued to develop everyday and at this time, is a large beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. The region has produced numerous C- and M-class events. Further C- and M-class events are expected with a chance of an X-class event as well.

WM

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 18-MAR-2003 22:14:10 UT
NOAA 0314 produced an X1.5 event at 03/17/19:05 UT and an X1/1b event at 03/18/12:08 UT. NOAA 0314 maintains a magnetically complex beta-gamma-delta configuration with tight magnetic gradients. The delta configuration has an E-W magnetic inversion line. C- and M-class events expected with a chance of another X-class event.

WM


Comments:
Bill Marquette whm@bbso.njit.edu
© BBSO/NJIT - Automatically generated on 31 December 2003