COMMENTS: The CME was due to a filament
eruption, which occured north-east from an AR 0200. The axial component
of the erupted magnetic field was northwardly directed. We expect that
the Bz component of the IMF will be unsettled, changing from S to N.
CME's Source Region is an area NE from NOAA AR 0200
;
P0= 18.540048; Day of Year # 328
CME Appeared at 6 Solar Radii on 20021124 at 2118 UT
CME Arrived at 20 Solar Radii on 20021124 at 2317 UT
CME's Projected Speed at 20R: 981 km/sec (The Catalog: 1077km/s)
Estimated Travel Time is 2.19554 +/- 0.25
days
Estimated Time of Arrival is 20021127 at 0359 UT
( COMMENTS: the corresponding ICME arrived on 20021126
at 2050UT - 7 hr earlier then predicted)1
Estimated Speed of Solar Wind at 1AU is 600
km/sec (about 550 km/sec)
Estimated Direction of the Bz at the
Leading Edge of the Magnetic Cloud is UNSETTLED,
NORTHWARD ( NORTHWARD)
Estimated Magnitude of hourly averaged Bz
at the Leading Edge of a Magnetic Cloud is -10...+10
nT
(+8.4nT)
Estimated Changes in the Dst index are -100...+50nT
(-60 nT from +6 on Nov 26 2300 to -54 on Nov 27 0600 )
Estimated Level of the Geomagnetic Storm is MODERATE...NONE(NONE-WEAK)
1Numbers in red are estimates. Numbers in
parenthesis (if any) are actual measured values
*These estimates should be compared to
the observed 1 hour averaged ACE and Dst values