COMMENTS: The axial magnetic field in the CME was
SN oriented and the azimuthal field was mainly EW directed and slightly
inclined to the south. Therefore, we do not expect a strong southward
component to be present in the IMF.
CME's Source Region is NOAA AR 0225 at N20W10
; P0= 8.2295204; Day of Year # 353
CME Appeared at 6 Solar Radii on 20021219 at 2318 UT
CME Arrived at 20 Solar Radii on 20021220 at 0230 UT
CME's Projected Speed at 20R: 812 km/sec (The Catalog: 1092km/s)
Estimated Travel Time is 2.45835 +/- 0.25 days
Estimated Time of Arrival is 20021222 at 1330 UT (Arrived on 20021222 at 1000UT )1
Estimated Speed of Solar Wind at 1AU is about 550 km/sec (km/sec)
Estimated Direction of the Bz at the
Leading Edge of the Magnetic Cloud is SOUTHWARD (NORTHWARD)
Estimated Magnitude of the hourly averaged Bz at the
Leading Edge of a Magnetic Cloud is -8...-20 nT (+17.1nT)
Estimated Change of the Dst index is -82...-148nT (+30nT)
Estimated Level of the Geomagnetic Storm is MODERATE...INTENSE(NONE)
1Numbers in red are estimates. Numbers in parenthesis (if any) are actual measured values *These estimates should be compared to the observed 1 hour averaged ACE and Dst values