CME's Source Region is NOAA AR 0365 ; P0= -16.870330; Day of Year # 148
CME Appeared at 6 Solar Radii on 20030528 at 0018 UT
CME Arrived at 20 Solar Radii on 20030528 at 0300 UT
CME's Projected Speed at 20R: 1450 km/sec
Estimated Travel Time is 1.6 +/- 0.25 days
Estimated Time of Arrival is 20030529 at 1412 UT ( COMMENTS:
The first signatures of the ejecta appeared at about 1200UT on 20030529 (see plot for more detail )1
Estimated Speed of Solar Wind at 1AU is 690 km/sec (about 750km/sec
at the front of the shock. About 650 km/s at the front of the MC.)
Estimated Direction of the Bz at the
Leading Edge of the Magnetic Cloud is NORTHWARD (NORTHWARD. The shock, thought, had several short but intensive peaks w/ southward Bz.)
Estimated Magnitude of the hourly averaged Bz at the
Leading Edge of a Magnetic Cloud is 27...41 nT ( +26nT in the MC.
Up to -14nT in the shock.)
Estimated Change of the Dst index is -50...50nT ( the shock produced a dip in the
Dst index reaching -130nT.)
Estimated Level of the Geomagnetic Storm is NONE ... WEAK(
NONE ... MODERATE)
1Numbers in red are estimates. Numbers in parenthesis (if any) are actual measured values *These estimates should be compared to the observed 1 hour averaged ACE and Dst values