COMMENTS: It looks to me that the Bz in the magnetic cloud will be positive
(northward directed). If so, no significant storm. However, the absolute magnitude of the Bz should
be really high! I'd say we are looking at at least 50nT or, quite possibly, more then that!
Should I be wrong and the Bz turns negative, i.e. southward, we can get a really severe storm
with the Dst of about -400nT or more! Now we have to leave, because of the SoCal fires, there is
voluntary evacuation in Big Bear, so have to get moving. Is there a connection between the fire activity
and solar activity these days? :)
CME's Source Region is NOAA AR0486 ; P0= 25.101634; Day of Year # 301
CME Appeared at 6 Solar Radii on 20031028 at 1118 UT
CME Arrived at 20 Solar Radii on 20031028 at 1230 UT
1Numbers in red are estimates. Numbers in parenthesis (if any) are actual measured values *These estimates should be compared to the observed 1 hour averaged ACE and Dst values