COMMENTS: Because the CME originated close to the solar limb it is not possible
to estimate the direction of the magnetic field at the front edge. Estimates below are the upper
bound for the Bz and the Dst and they were made assuming that the magnetic field will be
southwardly directed. The limb CMEs tend to be less geoeffective then the disk CMEs, however due
to the hight speed it still can cause a moderate storm.
CME's Source Region is NOAA AR0486 ; P0= 24.325979; Day of Year # 306
CME Appeared at 6 Solar Radii on 20031102 at 1742 UT
CME Arrived at 20 Solar Radii on 20031102 at 1912 UT
Estimated Time of Arrival is 20031104 at 0139 (arrived at approx. 0500UT )1
Estimated Speed of Solar Wind at 1AU is 886 km/sec (800km/sec)
Estimated Direction of the Bz at the
Leading Edge of the Magnetic Cloud is S or N (Bz was mainly directed northwardly,
however, the was a short S directed spike.)
Estimated Magnitude of the hourly averaged Bz at the
Leading Edge of a Magnetic Cloud is -9...-22 nT (+14.6nT on DOY 308.29)
Estimated Change of the Dst index is -66...-132nT (Dst dropped by about 100 points
from +50nT to -48nT)
Estimated Level of the Geomagnetic Storm is MODERATE...INTENSE(WEAK)
1Numbers in red are estimates. Numbers in parenthesis (if any) are actual measured values *These estimates should be compared to the observed 1 hour averaged ACE and Dst values