Halo CME on 20031118 - SOHO/LASCO C3 Data |
COMMENTS: This halo CME (not the bright one at the east limb) seems to have the magnetic field at the front edge directed southward. This ejecta has a potential to generate an intense storm.
Updated at 10:30PST on Nov 20: And it did! The CME-associated flare was only of M3.9 class, and it shows that we do not need a really strong (exceptional) flare to get an extreme geomagnetic storm.
CME's
Source Region is NOAA AR0501 ;
P0=20.536759; Day of Year #
322
CME Appeared at 6 Solar Radii on 20031118 at 0842 UT
CME Arrived at 20 Solar Radii on 20031118 at 1130 UT
CME's Projected Speed at 20R: 1370 km/sec
See more info on the event .
Estimated Travel Time is 1.74696 +/- 0.25 days
Estimated Time of Arrival is 20031120 at 0525 (It arrived before on 20031120 at 0600UT)1
Estimated Speed of Solar Wind at 1AU is 617 km/sec (at least 700 km/sec)
Estimated Direction of the Bz at the Leading Edge of the Magnetic Cloud is SOUTHWARD (since the magnetic cloud was NS oriented the Bz component was mainly SOUTHWARDLY directed all the time)
Estimated Magnitude of the hourly averaged Bz at the Leading Edge of a Magnetic Cloud is -21...-35 nT (Bz gradually dropped from approx. 0 to -52 nT at the center of the magnetic cloud.)
Estimated Change of the Dst index is -185...-251nT (Dst dropped by about 450 points from +20 to -429 nT at 2000UT)
Estimated Level of the Geomagnetic Storm is INTENSE...INTENSE (INTENSE)
NONE > -30 > WEAK > -50 > MODERATE > -100 > INTENSE
1Numbers in red are
estimates. Numbers in parenthesis (if any) are actual measured
values
*These estimates should be compared to the
observed 1 hour averaged ACE and Dst values
SOHO/LASCO C3 |
SOHO/LASCO C3 |
SOHO/LASCO C3 |
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Full Disk Halpha |
Full Disk SOHO/MDI |
Full Disk SOHO/EIT195 |
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Active Region Halpha |
Active Region SOHO/MDI |
Active Region /EIT195 |
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Images are courtesy of Active Region Monitor
Automaticaly Generated on
Tue Nov 18 14:34:41 2003
Please, send questions and comments to
Vasyl Yurchyshyn